Rollbit: A Gamble on GambleFi
领先的分布式博彩平台——Rollbit详解：GambleFi旗下最强链上赌博平台
最强赌博平台——Rollbit 详解
This week, let’s dive into the exciting world of GambleFi tokens. GambleFi merges the thrill of gambling with the security and transparency of blockchain technology. Essentially, it brings traditional casino games and sports betting onto the chain, making online gambling more verifiable and transparent. The harsh truth is that vices like gambling always have a special place in people’s hearts, regardless of whether it’s a bull or bear market.
The Big Player: Rollbit
Rollbit is the biggest player in this field, claiming to have 1 million registered users and an estimated daily betting volume of 40 million, with a total betting volume exceeding 5 billion. Since its launch in 2020, Rollbit has introduced various new features, and their native token RLB has surged by 530% since June 2023.
1. Price Trends and Catalysts
Two key growth drivers for Rollbit have been the migration to Ethereum and the launch of buybacks and burns. Just take a look at the chart! But of course, we all know charts can sometimes be like fortune-tellers at a carnival—impressive yet questionable.
2. Product Supply: Online Casino
Rollbit’s first product is their in-house casino games, which currently account for about 70% of their total revenue. They offer all the classic games you’d find in a typical casino, such as slots, blackjack, baccarat, and more. They have a whopping 4621 games on their platform, supported by renowned live casino game providers like Evolution Gaming and Pragmatic Play.
When the house wins, Rollbit makes money, and we all know that in the long run, the house always wins. Additionally, Rollbit takes a commission, extracting 3-5% from each bet.
Their whitepaper mentions that they have obtained full licensing and authorization from the Government of Curacao. However, the license does not entitle them to provide services in any other jurisdiction where online gambling is considered illegal or blacklisted.
Technically speaking, Rollbit’s market size is rather limited. So how can they achieve all the reported figures? Well, in terms of background, Rollbit comes close to generating one-third of the annual revenue of online casinos and sports betting companies like 888 Holdings, which is an international sports betting company with multiple brands listed on the London Stock Exchange.
3. Product Supply: Leveraged Crypto Trading
Users can trade futures of over 20 top cryptocurrencies with up to 1000x leverage and zero bid-ask spread. They charge a fixed fee of 0.04% for entering and exiting trades. Under the PnL option, if a user’s trade is profitable, they can take a 5% commission. Rollbit claims to provide instant trade execution with zero slippage. They also claim to have a trading volume of over 100 billion.
A detailed comparison of Rollbit’s 24-hour trading volume data with major CEX and Perps reveals their position. It’s hard to believe that Rollbit can surpass mature crypto derivative platforms like GMX, DyDx, and Synthetic. Rollbit’s future trading volume even surpasses the spot trading volume of leading CEX Coinbase.
Rollbit is most likely the counterparty for futures trading, which means they lose when traders win, and vice versa. Using GLP as an agent, their futures platform seems to generate incredible revenue.
Their whitepaper doesn’t provide information about the clearing mechanism, how they achieve zero slippage, or the absence of bid-ask spread. Offering 1000x leverage at such a low cost seems unbelievably good.
4. Product Supply: Sports Betting
Sports betting accounts for approximately 11% of Rollbit’s total revenue. Just like with the casino, they charge a 3-5% fee on each bet. Rollbit even supports betting on all major sports events, from football to table tennis. SSC Napoli is even their official European betting partner.
5. Buyback and Burn
30% of futures trading revenue, 20% of sports betting revenue, and 10% of casino revenue will be used for hourly buybacks of RLB. 10% of the bought-back RLB is allocated to Rollbots (Rollbit’s flagship NFT launch), and the remaining 90% is burned.
I plotted the cumulative RLB tokens burned daily, and the chart is almost perfectly linear, indicating consistent daily revenue. The R-squared value of the generated regression equation is 99.4%, suggesting that around 1.3 million RLB tokens are burned daily.
6. Uses of RLB Token
Every Rollbit user can receive a base rebate level of 5%. Players can increase their rebate by an additional 10%, depending on the amount of RLB they hold. The rebate is a percentage of the betting fees returned to the betting users.
Furthermore, the more RLB you hold, the greater the 0.04% discount on futures trading fees. Paying the fees with RLB will further reduce the amount paid.
7. Tokenomics
Currently, around 68% of the circulating supply is in the Rollbot deployer contract. The RLB in the deployer contract is transferred to Rollbit’s ERC-20 hot wallet. Analysis of large transactions on the hot wallet suggests that most RLB is used to provide liquidity for Uniswap.
In just three months, the Rollbot deployer contract has released 12.5% of the total supply of RLB. It’s unfair to consider the RLB in the deployer contract as circulating supply, as the amount released by the wallet increases inflationary pressure.
8. Risks
Overall, there is a lack of transparency, making it impossible to verify their reported revenue and futures trading volume data. The token itself has a trading volume of only 0.63% of its market cap in the past 24 hours. There has been no code audit since its launch. No information has been provided regarding the future roadmap. Their whitepaper seems outdated and lacks detailed information, which is a major red flag for me. So many aspects of Rollbit seem unbelievably good, like a big bubble waiting to burst.
9. Conclusion
I do like the idea of GambleFi and bringing gambling onto the chain. There is a huge market potential for gambling, and this vertical industry is undoubtedly evolving. However, I just don’t believe in Rollbit. Unless you ignore the token movements in the hot wallet, the RLB token itself can only be seen as deflationary. If their reported revenue and futures trading volume data are true, then it’s a great project. But until there’s a way to verify that, investing in Rollbit is essentially gambling on them.
So, fellow investors, what’s your take on Rollbit? Are you willing to roll the dice or play it safe? Let me know in the comments!
Original Article Title: Rollbit: A Gamble on GambleFi Original Article Author: Kunal Source: Medium Translation: Lynn
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