Delphi Digital分析师:为何加密货币上涨就像爬山一样艰难?

Delphi Digital加密货币分析师:为什么加密货币的上涨如此艰难?

Delphi Digital Analyst: Why is Cryptocurrency So Difficult to Rise?

Delphi Digital Analyst: Why is Cryptocurrency So Difficult to Rise?

Hey there, fellow digital asset enthusiasts! Have you ever wondered why the rise of cryptocurrencies seems to be such a struggle? Well, besides the lack of a compelling narrative, one of the reasons is low liquidity. It’s like trying to swim in a bathtub when the water is just enough to cover your toes!

To illustrate this, let’s take a look at the order books. The order book depth for BTC is at its lowest point of the year, with just 1% being displayed. That’s like having only a teeny-tiny puddle to swim in! Can you imagine the disappointment?

But wait, it gets worse! Both centralized exchanges (CEX) and decentralized exchanges (DEX) are experiencing abysmal trading volumes. It’s like trying to have a dance party with no music – a total flop!

Stablecoins, on the other hand, are in dire straits. They are going through the most severe contraction in history. It’s like they’re on a crash diet, shedding pounds of value. Talk about slim pickings!

Now, let’s talk about why capital keeps flowing out of the crypto market instead of flooding in. The root cause? Interest rates! It’s like deciding whether to lend your money to the US government and earn big profits or to Aave, a decentralized lending platform. Seriously, why lend to Aave when Uncle Sam offers a sweeter deal?

High interest rates aren’t just making potential lenders think twice. They are also dampening on-chain activity. It’s like an empty highway during rush hour – no one wants to take the slow lane!

The financing landscape is equally brutal. Venture capital firms have shifted their attention from various meme coins to the frontiers of ChatGPT – an AI language model. It’s like switching from chasing after various flavors of ice cream to hunting for the latest unicorn steak. Talk about a change of taste!

Now, let’s dive into the ruthless competition for liquidity. It’s like a cutthroat PvP (player-versus-player) market. When new tokens are introduced, they are no longer seen as “bullish innovations” like during the DeFi summer, but rather as “another mouth to feed,” competing for a slice of the liquidity pie. It’s like a brawl over the last piece of pizza at a party!

To simplify the relationship between tokens, liquidity, and price, let’s use a formula:

Liquidity / Token = Future Returns

During the DeFi summer, tokens were all alone in the equation. But the equation has changed. Now, new projects are forced to compete for the remaining liquidity, like hungry sharks in a sea of degens. And with around 100,000 degens swimming around, it’s getting crowded out there!

Imagine this scene: during the liquidity expansion phase (bull market), trading for popular narratives is more or less aligned. But during a bear market cycle, narratives fight tooth and nail for limited capital. It’s like a ruthless game of hot potato, resulting in wildly different price trends. You don’t want to be caught in that chaos!

Even in the rare case where multiple narratives coexist, the competition game still dominates. Just look at the Base ecosystem. You might think that Bald (Meme) and Friend Tech (SocialFi) would mutually benefit by bringing new users and capital to the Base ecosystem. But nope, their relationship has evolved into a parasitic one, where one party thrives while the other suffers. It’s like a toxic friendship that needs intervention!

For a virtuous cycle of “data rise -> degens flock -> data rise,” we need to improve the liquidity environment. While there may be a tiny rebound in the future, a billion-level virtuous cycle depends on the retaliatory return of low-interest borrowing. So, don’t hold your breath for Valhalla (the promised land) just yet. It might come, but it could be after the market turmoil. In the meantime, buckle up and weather the storm, my fellow crypto adventurers!

Delphi Digital Analyst: Why is Cryptocurrency So Difficult to Rise?

As we delve into these market dynamics, remember to keep a keen eye on liquidity, defy the odds like a champion swimmer squeezing into a tiny bathtub, and stay ahead of the game like a master chess player. Together, we’ll overcome the challenges and ride the waves of the crypto world. Cheers to that!

So, what are your thoughts on the struggles of cryptocurrency’s rise? Are you ready to face the storm and emerge victorious on the other side? Let me know in the comments below!

We will continue to update 算娘; if you have any questions or suggestions, please contact us!

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